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The Gold Price in 2023 - what can we expect?
Analysts have crunched the numbers on their abacuses and predicted the price of gold for 2023. The “outrageous” set of forecasts from the Danish investment firm Saxo, which included that spot gold “climbs over” $3,000 an ounce, has drawn more media attention than most. However, $3,000 per ounce seems improbable considering Saxo’s second projection that French President Emmanuel Macron would opt to step down and leave politics in the first quarter of 2023.
Saxo is not the only extreme forecast; keep this in mind. According to Credit Suisse bank investment strategist Zoltan Pozsar, it is “not implausible” that gold might reach $3,600 an ounce if Russia accepts payments in gold in response to the G7’s $60/barrel price restriction on Russian crude oil. Although it seems unlikely, experts love media attention, and Pozsar received plenty with this theory.
Regarding this year, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia was one of the most dramatic occurrences that few could have expected or envisaged. At the end of last year, few predictions could predict the incredible price range that the gold price has seen this year (peaking at approximately $2,044/ounce on 7 March, down to $1,627.84 on 25 September, and currently trading at $1,788 on 13 December).
That’s perhaps not surprising given the dramatic events of the past 12 months, which included the highest rates of inflation in the US and UK in more than 40 years, a sharp increase in energy prices, a belated catch-up by many central banks that had previously accepted the argument that inflation is temporary, and record central bank gold purchases.
The fact that MM cannot and does not provide financial advice or forecast gold prices is a comfort considering the likelihood of error. However, let’s consider what has occurred over the last year. It is reasonable to conclude that gold has played one significant function: maintaining its composure while many around it appear to have been losing theirs. According to Incrementum, the asset management, at the beginning of December, was down 3.3% in US Dollar terms but up 8.5% in Pound Sterling and 16% in Japanese Yen in terms of other key currencies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down by about 5% this year, while the S&P 500 has lost close to 15% of its value in 2022. This year’s inflation has considerably reduced the purchasing power of major fiat currencies like the Dollar and the Pound. Gold is frequently mentioned as a “defensive” asset with less volatility and more stability. This year, the cryptocurrency market fell precipitously, with the most well-known, Bitcoin, losing almost 70% of its value.
There is no way to predict what the new year will bring. The most glittering item you can purchase this Christmas season might not be tinsel for your tree because gold represents security, and gold is the key. At MM, we strive to show a balanced discussion regarding purchasing power between gold, cryptocurrencies, and fiat currencies. While we firmly think that gold is the most trustworthy and fair money on the earth, we must emphasise that it is not entirely risk-free. Although there has been a consistent rise throughout time, gold’s value might fall, so its purchasing power can also diminish.
Securities disclosure.: I, Beat Süess, have no direct investment interests in any of the companies mentioned in this article.